{"id":64233,"date":"2025-04-11T08:53:11","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T15:53:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.penderfund.com\/?post_type=commentaries&p=64233"},"modified":"2025-09-17T12:18:56","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T19:18:56","slug":"pender-alternative-absolute-return-fund-march-2025","status":"publish","type":"commentaries","link":"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/fr\/commentaries\/pender-alternative-absolute-return-fund-march-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Fonds alternatif \u00e0 rendement absolu Pender \u2013 mars 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Chers porteurs et porteuses de parts,<\/p>\n

Le Fonds alternatif \u00e0 rendement absolu Pender a termin\u00e9 le mois de mars avec un rendement de 1,2 % pour \u00e9tablir son cumul annuel \u00e0 2,0 %[1]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Les actifs de risque ont mal perform\u00e9 en mars, car l\u2019euphorie entourant l\u2019entr\u00e9e de Donald Trump \u00e0 la Maison-Blanche a \u00e9t\u00e9 remplac\u00e9e par l\u2019inqui\u00e9tude suscit\u00e9e par les r\u00e9percussions des tarifs sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale. L\u2019indice ICE BofA US High Yield a d\u00e9gag\u00e9 un rendement de -1,1 % en mars en raison de l\u2019\u00e9largissement des \u00e9carts de 68 points de base. L\u2019\u00e9cart de r\u00e9mun\u00e9ration corrig\u00e9 des effets de la clause de remboursement anticip\u00e9 (OAS) a fini le mois \u00e0 355 points de base par rapport aux obligations gouvernementales. L\u2019indice de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence du Fonds, soit l\u2019indice HFRI Credit, a rapport\u00e9 -0,4 % en mars, pour \u00e9tablir son cumul annuel \u00e0 1,4 %.<\/p>\n

Mise \u00e0 jour sur le march\u00e9 et le portefeuille<\/h3>\n

Au cours des six derniers mois, l\u2019extr\u00eame complaisance r\u00e9gnant sur les march\u00e9s des titres risqu\u00e9s a c\u00e9d\u00e9 la place \u00e0 l\u2019aversion au risque, engendr\u00e9e par les tentatives du pr\u00e9sident Trump de transformer radicalement le commerce mondial par l\u2019imposition de droits de douane.<\/p>\n

Nous avons d\u00e9j\u00e0 soulign\u00e9 par le pass\u00e9 que dans les six mois suivant un creux dans les \u00e9carts de cr\u00e9dit, il arrive souvent qu\u2019une r\u00e9\u00e9valuation consid\u00e9rable s\u2019op\u00e8re. Voil\u00e0 \u00e0 peine plus de deux mois que les \u00e9carts des titres \u00e0 rendement \u00e9lev\u00e9 ont atteint un plancher in\u00e9gal\u00e9 en plusieurs d\u00e9cennies, et d\u00e9j\u00e0 les \u00e9carts surpassent la moyenne sur dix ans. Nous pensons que l\u2019\u00e9tendue r\u00e9elle de cet \u00e9v\u00e9nement touchant au risque mettra des semaines, voire des mois, \u00e0 se r\u00e9sorber, et que cette p\u00e9riode demeurera probablement agit\u00e9e m\u00eame apr\u00e8s que le march\u00e9 aura accus\u00e9 le choc initial.<\/p>\n

Comparativement \u00e0 des \u00e9pisodes r\u00e9cents, comme ceux de d\u00e9cembre 2018 et de mars 2020, nous croyons que la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale aura plus de mal \u00e0 soutenir le march\u00e9, parce que l\u2019inflation est \u00e9lev\u00e9e et qu\u2019elle pourrait le devenir davantage \u00e0 cause des droits de douane. \u00c0 notre avis, la volatilit\u00e9 s\u2019accentuera pendant quelque temps et les occasions se multiplieront \u00e0 mesure que les titres individuels se disloqueront davantage par rapport \u00e0 leurs pairs et aux donn\u00e9es fondamentales.<\/p>\n

Imm\u00e9diatement apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce du \u00ab\u2009Jour de la lib\u00e9ration\u2009\u00bb, nous avons ajout\u00e9 des positions courtes en mati\u00e8re de cr\u00e9dit individuel, mais aussi des positions longues qui devraient, selon nous, surpasser la performance du march\u00e9. En r\u00e8gle g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, nous ne parlons pas des positions courtes individuelles. Toutefois, parmi les actifs pr\u00e9f\u00e9r\u00e9s de notre portefeuille de positions courtes se trouvent des obligations cot\u00e9es BB par des agences de notation, mais qui devraient en fait figurer dans une cat\u00e9gorie inf\u00e9rieure en raison de la qualit\u00e9, de l\u2019ampleur et de la cyclicit\u00e9 de l\u2019entreprise. La notation BB s\u2019applique \u00e0 la tranche sup\u00e9rieure des titres \u00e0 rendement \u00e9lev\u00e9, tranche dans laquelle les pertes dues \u00e0 des d\u00e9fauts de paiement sont rares. On permet d\u2019ailleurs \u00e0 certains fonds de cat\u00e9gorie investissement de d\u00e9tenir des obligations BB, dont les rendements peuvent \u00eatre plus attrayants que ceux des autres actifs de leur sph\u00e8re d\u2019investissement. \u00c0 preuve, la r\u00e9trogradation r\u00e9cente (de BBB \u00e0 BB) d\u2019anges d\u00e9chus qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 tr\u00e8s peu vendus par les d\u00e9tenteurs de titres de cat\u00e9gorie investissement, alors que les investisseurs en rendement \u00e9lev\u00e9 qui sont influenc\u00e9s par les indices ont d\u00fb, eux, en acheter, ce qui a provoqu\u00e9 un resserrement des \u00e9carts (engendr\u00e9 par la d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation vers le rendement \u00e9lev\u00e9). Nous pensons que certains participants au march\u00e9 ne respectent gu\u00e8re les agences de notation et perdent leur sens critique quant \u00e0 la v\u00e9ritable qualit\u00e9 fondamentale du cr\u00e9dit en pr\u00e9sence d\u2019une cote BB.<\/p>\n

Apr\u00e8s deux jours de faiblesse, mais d\u2019ordre, suivant l\u2019annonce par Trump de tarifs douaniers, les ventes forc\u00e9es se sont multipli\u00e9es dans la deuxi\u00e8me semaine d\u2019avril. Un march\u00e9 d\u00e9sordonn\u00e9, o\u00f9 les acheteurs imposent les prix, est un terreau fertile pour de bons rendements pr\u00e9visionnels. Bien que l\u2019ajustement des prix ne soit pas termin\u00e9, le march\u00e9 est le plus faible que nous ayons vu depuis octobre 2023.<\/p>\n

Les hypoth\u00e8ses ant\u00e9rieures sur l\u2019avenir du commerce mondial ne tiennent plus. Les effets collat\u00e9raux des changements \u00e0 venir sont ind\u00e9termin\u00e9s et ils ne se pr\u00e9ciseront qu\u2019avec le temps.<\/p>\n

Que nous r\u00e9serve l\u2019avenir?<\/h3>\n

Il est peu probable que les march\u00e9s \u00e9volueront lin\u00e9airement, mais nous croyons que la ligne de moindre r\u00e9sistance pour les primes de risque demeure plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e. En fonction de ce qui se d\u00e9roulera sur le terrain, nous pensons que les \u00e9carts touchant aux titres \u00e0 rendement \u00e9lev\u00e9 grimperont jusqu\u2019\u00e0 un sommet de 550 \u00e0 800 points de base cette ann\u00e9e. Nous sommes d\u2019avis que, m\u00eame s\u2019il y a r\u00e9cession, les \u00e9carts n\u2019atteindront pas 1 000 points de base cette fois-ci en raison du bilan relativement solide des \u00e9metteurs des titres \u00e0 rendement \u00e9lev\u00e9, des taux de rendement sup\u00e9rieurs du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des bons du Tr\u00e9sor et d\u2019un \u00e9ventuel soutien du cr\u00e9dit de la part de la Fed comme elle l\u2019a fait en 2020.<\/p>\n

\"\"
\nSource: Bloomberg \/ ICE<\/em><\/p>\n

Nous pr\u00e9voyons d\u2019accro\u00eetre prudemment l\u2019exposition du Fonds au march\u00e9 \u00e0 mesure que les taux de rendement et les \u00e9carts augmenteront. Nous aurons aussi l\u2019occasion de vendre \u00e0 la hausse. La mont\u00e9e de la volatilit\u00e9 nous permettra \u00e9galement d\u2019intensifier l\u2019activit\u00e9 du Fonds, ce qui devrait d\u00e9gager des revenus au fil du temps.<\/p>\n

Bien que les r\u00e9percussions d\u2019une vaste r\u00e9organisation du commerce mondial soient forc\u00e9ment inqui\u00e9tantes, nous croyons que la volatilit\u00e9 et la peur feront na\u00eetre des occasions. Si nous r\u00e9ussissons \u00e0 \u00e9viter les d\u00e9fauts de paiement, nous croyons que les taux de rendement augmenteront parall\u00e8lement aux rendements pr\u00e9visionnels. Selon nous, 2025 sera plus fertile en occasions et en dislocations que 2024.<\/p>\n

Param\u00e8tres du portefeuille<\/h3>\n

Le Fonds a pass\u00e9 le fil d\u2019arriv\u00e9e du mois de mars arm\u00e9 d\u2019une pond\u00e9ration longue de 106,2 % (excluant les liquidit\u00e9s et les bons du Tr\u00e9sor). Dans celle-ci, 27,3 % relevaient de notre strat\u00e9gie \u00e0 revenu fixe r\u00e9gulier, 78,9 % de notre strat\u00e9gie ax\u00e9e sur la valeur relative et 0,0 % de notre strat\u00e9gie visant l\u2019investissement \u00e9v\u00e9nementiel. Le Fonds renfermait en outre une pond\u00e9ration courte de -49,5 %, dont -3,6 % dans les obligations du gouvernement, -32,0 % dans les titres de cr\u00e9ance d\u2019entreprises et -13,9 % dans les actions. La dur\u00e9e de r\u00e9mun\u00e9ration corrig\u00e9e des effets de la clause de remboursement anticip\u00e9 (option-adjusted duration ou OAD) se chiffrait \u00e0 1,26 an.<\/p>\n

En excluant les positions se n\u00e9gociant \u00e0 des \u00e9carts de plus de 500 pb et les participations se n\u00e9gociant en vertu d\u2019une date d\u2019\u00e9ch\u00e9ance ou de rappel de 2027 ou ant\u00e9rieure, l\u2019OAD du Fonds a baiss\u00e9 \u00e0 0,66 an.<\/p>\n

Le taux de rendement actuel du Fonds est de 5,43 % et le taux de rendement \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9ch\u00e9ance de 5,60 %.<\/p>\n

Justin Jacobsen, CFA
\n11 avril 2025<\/em><\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> Tous les rendements signal\u00e9s sont ceux des parts de cat\u00e9gorie F du Fonds. D\u2019autres cat\u00e9gories de parts sont offertes. Celles-ci pourraient pr\u00e9senter des frais et des rendements diff\u00e9rents. <\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le Fonds alternatif \u00e0 rendement absolu Pender a termin\u00e9 le mois de mars avec un rendement de 1,2 % pour \u00e9tablir son cumul annuel \u00e0 2,0 %. Les actifs de risque ont mal perform\u00e9 en mars, car l\u2019euphorie entourant l\u2019entr\u00e9e de Donald Trump \u00e0 la Maison-Blanche a \u00e9t\u00e9 remplac\u00e9e par l\u2019inqui\u00e9tude suscit\u00e9e par les r\u00e9percussions des tarifs sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":70405,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"fund-type":[45,46],"class_list":["post-64233","commentaries","type-commentaries","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","fund-type-pender-liquid-alternative-funds","fund-type-pender-alternative-absolute-return-fund"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPender Alternative Absolute Return Fund \u2013 March 2025 - PenderFund Capital Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pender Alternative Absolute Return Fund \u2013 March 2025 - PenderFund Capital Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dear Unitholders, The Pender Alternative Absolute Return Fund finished March with a return of 1.2%, bringing year to date returns to 2.0%[1]. 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