{"id":59080,"date":"2024-07-15T12:09:23","date_gmt":"2024-07-15T19:09:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.penderfund.com\/?p=59080"},"modified":"2025-09-09T07:57:54","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T14:57:54","slug":"why-the-next-five-years-will-give-tailwinds-for-distressed-credit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/fr\/articles\/why-the-next-five-years-will-give-tailwinds-for-distressed-credit\/","title":{"rendered":"Pourquoi les cinq prochaines ann\u00e9es seront favorables aux titres de cr\u00e9ance en d\u00e9tresse"},"content":{"rendered":"

Comme on le voit sur BPM\u2013 15 juillet 2024.<\/a><\/p>\n

Benjamin Graham, p\u00e8re de l\u2019investissement de valeur et auteur de L\u2019investisseur intelligent, a dit : \u00ab\u2009Investir intelligemment, c\u2019est g\u00e9rer le risque, pas l\u2019\u00e9viter.\u2009\u00bb Peu de strat\u00e9gies ob\u00e9issent autant \u00e0 cette recommandation que les cr\u00e9ances en situation de stress et de d\u00e9tresse. Ces actifs offrent aux investisseurs des propositions risque-rendement int\u00e9ressantes, mais il n\u2019existe pas de FNB passifs pour ce genre d\u2019occasions. Investir dans des entreprises en difficult\u00e9, c\u2019est opter pour une strat\u00e9gie taill\u00e9e sur mesure par laquelle on cr\u00e9e et \u00e9rige de l\u2019alpha une entreprise \u00e0 la fois, car chaque situation est unique.<\/p>\n

Pour r\u00e9ussir, il faut non seulement exceller dans l\u2019analyse des donn\u00e9es fondamentales, mais aussi poss\u00e9der un ensemble de comp\u00e9tences digne d\u2019un couteau suisse : excellence dans la restructuration des bilans, collaboration avec les intervenants, y compris les juristes et les comptables de l\u2019entreprise en difficult\u00e9 et finalement, une bonne exp\u00e9rience du processus de faillite. Chaque cas est diff\u00e9rent et requiert une approche nuanc\u00e9e et agile si l\u2019on veut g\u00e9rer les risques tant connus qu\u2019inconnus. En mati\u00e8re de cr\u00e9ances en situation de stress ou de d\u00e9tresse, les investisseurs n\u2019ont pas \u00e0 attendre un march\u00e9 favorable pour produire de l\u2019alpha, ils peuvent y arriver en restructurant la dette ou en prolongeant les \u00e9ch\u00e9ances.<\/p>\n

Le fonds d\u2019opportunit\u00e9s de titres de cr\u00e9dit II de Pender (le Fonds) a pour objectifs d\u2019obtenir des rendements absolus consid\u00e9rables et d\u2019investir dans les actifs sous-\u00e9valu\u00e9s d\u2019entreprises dont le potentiel \u00e0 venir n\u2019est pas encore reconnu par le march\u00e9. Il arrive parfois qu\u2019une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9prouve des probl\u00e8mes, que des industries tombent en disgr\u00e2ce et que des obstacles sur le plan du refinancement donnent lieu \u00e0 des situations qui s\u2019inscrivent en porte-\u00e0-faux par rapport aux tendances typiques du march\u00e9. Ces situations cr\u00e9ent des occasions d\u2019investir uniques dont les rendements non corr\u00e9l\u00e9s et asym\u00e9triques ne cadrent pas avec ce que le cycle du march\u00e9 offre g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c0 notre avis, investir dans les cr\u00e9ances d\u2019entreprises cot\u00e9es en difficult\u00e9 financi\u00e8re se n\u00e9gociant \u00e0 un fort escompte par rapport \u00e0 leur juste prix sur le march\u00e9 peut produire un alpha fort, quel que soit le cycle du march\u00e9, car il y aura toujours des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s qui feront face \u00e0 des d\u00e9fis de toutes sortes. Quoi qu\u2019il en soit, nous croyons qu\u2019au cours des deux \u00e0 cinq prochaines ann\u00e9es, les occasions se multiplieront en raison de ces cinq conditions favorables : le ralentissement des d\u00e9penses des consommateurs, le maintien des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e9lev\u00e9s, les \u00e9ch\u00e9ances imminentes, l\u2019incertitude g\u00e9opolitique et la normalisation \u00e0 la suite de la sous-performance prolong\u00e9e des petites et moyennes entreprises.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Des courants dangereux<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n

En surface, l\u2019\u00e9conomie semble r\u00e9siliente. Le consensus a \u00e9volu\u00e9 d\u2019un atterrissage \u00ab\u2009tumultueux\u2009\u00bb \u00e0 un atterrissage \u00ab\u2009en douceur\u2009\u00bb \u00e0 pas d\u2019atterrissage du tout. Les d\u00e9penses des consommateurs demeurent modestes et les \u00e9carts de cr\u00e9dit sont serr\u00e9s. Cependant, en d\u00e9pit de l\u2019autosatisfaction relative des march\u00e9s, \u00e0 y regarder de plus pr\u00e8s, on observe la pr\u00e9sence de courants dangereux.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u2019inflation, les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e9lev\u00e9s, les salaires croissants, le ralentissement de la demande du consommateur associ\u00e9 \u00e0 une plus grande sensibilit\u00e9 au prix sont autant de facteurs qui entra\u00eenent <\/span>le d\u00e9clin des d\u00e9penses discr\u00e9tionnaires<\/span><\/a>, comme on peut le lire dans la r\u00e9cente \u00e9dition du Livre beige de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale. Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s peinent \u00e0 transf\u00e9rer aux consommateurs les hausses de co\u00fbts dans des domaines comme l\u2019\u00e9nergie, les assurances et les mat\u00e9riaux bruts. Les entreprises fortement endett\u00e9es en souffrent de mani\u00e8re excessive. Elles doivent offrir des rendements sup\u00e9rieurs aux investisseurs afin qu\u2019ils acceptent de courir le risque plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 de d\u00e9faut de paiement. Le service d\u2019une dette qui s\u2019accumule peut pr\u00e9cipiter des entreprises dans la d\u00e9tresse financi\u00e8re.<\/p>\n

Selon S&P Global Ratings, davantage d\u2019entreprises n\u2019ont pas pu honorer leurs dettes en ce d\u00e9but d\u2019ann\u00e9e 2024 comparativement \u00e0 tout autre d\u00e9but d\u2019ann\u00e9e depuis 2008 et \u00e0 la crise financi\u00e8re mondiale. Certains secteurs pr\u00e9cis, comme l\u2019immobilier commercial, les banques r\u00e9gionales, les cin\u00e9mas et les soins de la sant\u00e9, qui se trouvent tous en r\u00e9cession technique, semblent les plus vuln\u00e9rables. Ainsi, au d\u00e9but de 2024, trois entreprises de soins de la sant\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaines se sont retrouv\u00e9es en d\u00e9faut de paiement, de m\u00eame que le groupe britannique d\u2019exploitation cin\u00e9matographique Vue Entertainment International. Les entreprises de soins de la sant\u00e9 ou de produits chimiques, aux premi\u00e8res lignes avec la client\u00e8le et affubl\u00e9es de flux de tr\u00e9sorerie n\u00e9gatifs, seront aussi en danger si les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat restent \u00e9lev\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, la faiblesse de certains secteurs ou territoires est demeur\u00e9e isol\u00e9e et ne s\u2019est pas r\u00e9pandue dans les march\u00e9s du cr\u00e9dit. Par exemple, en mars, les \u00e9carts quant aux titres \u00e0 rendement \u00e9lev\u00e9 ont atteint 305 pb, leur niveau le plus serr\u00e9 en dix ans.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Le Fonds cible les \u00e9missions \u00e0 petite ou moyenne capitalisation. La raison en est qu\u2019elles sont souvent ignor\u00e9es par les grands investisseurs qui sont tenus de d\u00e9ployer des milliards de dollars, et de ce fait, se retrouvent dans une ar\u00e8ne moins bond\u00e9e. Les sph\u00e8res du march\u00e9 souffrant d\u2019une rar\u00e9faction du capital donnent souvent lieu \u00e0 des occasions d\u2019investir int\u00e9ressantes. Ce n\u2019est un secret pour personne que les valeurs \u2014 sur une base tant absolue que relative \u2014 des petites entreprises cot\u00e9es n\u2019ont jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi basses depuis le d\u00e9but du mill\u00e9naire (pr\u00e9sentant un escompte d\u2019environ 5,6x pour le S&P600 contre le S&P 500 en mars 2024). Quand les entreprises plus modestes ont des probl\u00e8mes financiers, comme un endettement excessif, les \u00e9carts de cr\u00e9dit touchant leurs \u00e9missions tendent \u00e0 avoir des soubresauts plus marqu\u00e9s que les grandes entreprises \u00e0 cause des pr\u00e9jug\u00e9s n\u00e9gatifs \u00e0 leur endroit. Nous pouvons tirer avantage de cette volatilit\u00e9 parce que, tr\u00e8s souvent, nous connaissons d\u00e9j\u00e0 tr\u00e8s bien ces soci\u00e9t\u00e9s par l\u2019interm\u00e9diaire de nos autres mandats de placements. Nous avons donc une excellente compr\u00e9hension de leur valeur par rapport au fardeau de leur dette ou d\u2019autres facteurs de stress majeurs.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pour les entreprises fortement endett\u00e9es, l\u2019imminence du mur de la dette de plusieurs billions de dollars est une v\u00e9ritable menace. L\u2019entreprise qui payait 3 ou 4 pour cent sur ses emprunts pourrait devoir offrir le double voire le triple quand sa dette arrivera \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance dans les 3 ou 5 prochaines ann\u00e9es, ce qui risque de contaminer les march\u00e9s. Ceci est particuli\u00e8rement vrai dans le secteur de l\u2019immobilier commercial qui a connu une \u00e8re de croissance inou\u00efe il y a 10 ans quand les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e9taient bas, mais qui essuie maintenant des pertes \u00e9normes en se refinan\u00e7ant aux taux actuels, nettement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s, tout en devant composer avec une baisse de la demande caus\u00e9e par la mode du travail \u00e0 domicile ou hybride.<\/p>\n

Notre gestion active du portefeuille est l\u2019une des pierres d\u2019assise de notre strat\u00e9gie d\u2019investissement dans des titres de cr\u00e9ance en difficult\u00e9 et une condition essentielle pour qui veut s\u2019y retrouver dans les m\u00e9andres de ces march\u00e9s idiosyncrasiques. Il faut travailler sur le terrain pour s\u2019adapter rapidement \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution du march\u00e9, saisir les occasions qui se pr\u00e9sentent et g\u00e9rer le risque avec efficience. Au cours des trois \u00e0 cinq prochaines ann\u00e9es, les investisseurs auront une chance unique de tirer profit de cette strat\u00e9gie non corr\u00e9l\u00e9e et diversifi\u00e9e.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Benjamin Graham, p\u00e8re de l\u2019investissement de valeur et auteur de L\u2019investisseur intelligent, a dit : \u00ab\u2009Investir intelligemment, c\u2019est g\u00e9rer le risque, pas l\u2019\u00e9viter.\u2009\u00bb Peu de strat\u00e9gies ob\u00e9issent autant \u00e0 cette recommandation que les cr\u00e9ances en situation de stress et de d\u00e9tresse. Ces actifs offrent aux investisseurs des propositions risque-rendement int\u00e9ressantes, mais [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":70228,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[115],"fund-type":[41],"class_list":["post-59080","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-bpm","fund-type-fixed-income-funds"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy the next five years will give tailwinds for distressed credit - PenderFund Capital Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why the next five years will give tailwinds for distressed credit - PenderFund Capital Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As published in BPM on 15 July, 2024. Benjamin Graham, the \u201cfather of value investing\u201d and author of the classic The Intelligent Investor, wrote: \u201cSuccessful investing is about managing risk, not avoiding it.\u201d Few strategies capture this idea better than stressed and distressed debt. These assets offer investors attractive risk\/return propositions but there is no […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/fr\/articles\/why-the-next-five-years-will-give-tailwinds-for-distressed-credit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"PenderFund Capital Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/penderfund\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-07-15T19:09:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-09T14:57:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Stock_image_meetingroom.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"850\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"400\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Evan Warburton\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@penderfund\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@penderfund\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Evan Warburton\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimation du temps de lecture\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/articles\/why-the-next-five-years-will-give-tailwinds-for-distressed-credit\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/articles\/why-the-next-five-years-will-give-tailwinds-for-distressed-credit\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Evan Warburton\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/#\/schema\/person\/17c0d780f89503e6aaeb9ed8c523a712\"},\"headline\":\"Why the next five years will give tailwinds for distressed credit\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-07-15T19:09:23+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-09-09T14:57:54+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/articles\/why-the-next-five-years-will-give-tailwinds-for-distressed-credit\/\"},\"wordCount\":981,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/articles\/why-the-next-five-years-will-give-tailwinds-for-distressed-credit\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Stock_image_meetingroom.png\",\"keywords\":[\"BPM\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Articles\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-CA\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/articles\/why-the-next-five-years-will-give-tailwinds-for-distressed-credit\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/articles\/why-the-next-five-years-will-give-tailwinds-for-distressed-credit\/\",\"name\":\"Why the next five years will give tailwinds for distressed credit - 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