{"id":59230,"date":"2024-07-29T10:07:58","date_gmt":"2024-07-29T17:07:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.penderfund.com\/?p=59230"},"modified":"2025-08-23T12:33:55","modified_gmt":"2025-08-23T19:33:55","slug":"what-do-experts-really-know-embracing-the-unknown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/fr\/articles\/what-do-experts-really-know-embracing-the-unknown\/","title":{"rendered":"Comment se portent vos m\u00e9taconnaissances? L\u2019importance de conna\u00eetre son cercle de comp\u00e9tence"},"content":{"rendered":"

Comme on le voit sur CFA Institute Enterprising Investor (en anglais) le 29 juillet 2024.<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00c0 quel point \u00eates-vous certain de vos connaissances? En 2002, Donald Rumsfeld, alors secr\u00e9taire \u00e0 la d\u00e9fense des \u00c9tats-Unis, a lanc\u00e9 ces mots<\/a> d\u00e9sormais c\u00e9l\u00e8bres lors d\u2019un breffage du Pentagone :<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u2009Comme chacun sait, il y a le connu connu, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les choses que nous savons que nous savons; il y a aussi l\u2019inconnu connu, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les choses que nous savons que nous ne savons pas; mais il y a aussi l\u2019inconnu inconnu \u2014 les choses que nous ne savons pas que nous ne savons pas.\u2009\u00bb \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

On attend des grands experts qu\u2019ils connaissent \u00e0 fond leur domaine, qu\u2019il s\u2019agisse de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale, d\u2019investissement ou d\u2019autre chose. Mais, comme le rappellent les mots de Rumsfeld, la \u00ab\u2009m\u00e9taconnaissance\u2009\u00bb, o\u00f9 la conscience des limites de ses connaissances est tout aussi importante que la connaissance.<\/p>\n

Les experts ont-ils un avantage sur les inexperts en ce qu\u2019ils auraient un degr\u00e9 sup\u00e9rieur de m\u00e9taconnaissance? Une nouvelle \u00e9tude a tent\u00e9 de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 cette question en s\u2019int\u00e9ressant \u00e0 des experts en sciences climatiques, statistiques psychologiques et investissement. Les chercheurs ont conclu que les experts tendent bel et bien \u00e0 avoir une m\u00e9taconnaissance sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celle des inexperts. Par exemple, ils p\u00e9chaient moins par exc\u00e8s de confiance que les inexperts, mais ne doutaient pas du bien-fond\u00e9 de leurs r\u00e9ponses lorsqu\u2019elles \u00e9taient correctes. Malheureusement, ils \u00e9taient aussi plus enclins que les inexperts \u00e0 avoir davantage confiance dans leurs mauvaises r\u00e9ponses.<\/p>\n

Des \u00e9tudes pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes avaient trouv\u00e9 la pr\u00e9sence de biais cognitifs chez les experts en finance et en m\u00e9decine. Par exemple, les \u00e9conomistes font montre d\u2019une confiance excessive dans leurs th\u00e9ories malgr\u00e9 un long pass\u00e9 de pr\u00e9visions erron\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

Les gestionnaires de fonds d\u2019investissement, tout en vantant l\u2019importance d\u2019analyser les d\u00e9cisions, sont loin de toujours le faire en pratique, ce qui ne les emp\u00eache pas de croire mordicus \u00e0 leurs conclusions sous-optimales. Des ann\u00e9es d\u2019exp\u00e9rience ne semblent pas, h\u00e9las! avoir att\u00e9nu\u00e9 cette tendance. On a observ\u00e9 une disposition semblable chez les professionnels de la m\u00e9decine. D\u2019apr\u00e8s une \u00e9tude, les m\u00e9decins continuent de croire en leur diagnostic 70 % du temps, alors m\u00eame qu\u2019ils ne diagnostiquent correctement que 5,8 % des cas difficiles. Autant une erreur de jugement peut \u00eatre d\u00e9sastreuse pour un patient, autant une d\u00e9cision fond\u00e9e sur une analyse d\u00e9ficiente peut nuire aux rendements d\u2019un client en investissement.<\/p>\n

Consid\u00e9rant la t\u00e9nacit\u00e9 de certains biais cognitifs, comment un conseiller peut-il rendre ses d\u00e9cisions plus s\u00fbres en augmentant sa m\u00e9taconnaissance? Il peut, par exemple, tirer profit de ses comp\u00e9tences individuelles en investissement en les utilisant au sein d\u2019une \u00e9quipe structur\u00e9e. Il profite ainsi d\u2019un avantage organisationnel.<\/p>\n

L\u2019avantage organisationnel ne se limite pas \u00e0 la somme des comp\u00e9tences de tous les membres de l\u2019\u00e9quipe. Il tient aussi \u00e0 la fa\u00e7on dont ces comp\u00e9tences sont structur\u00e9es, int\u00e9gr\u00e9es et exploit\u00e9es. Une organisation bien con\u00e7ue optimise la dynamique de l\u2019\u00e9quipe, encourage une communication efficace et promeut une prise de d\u00e9cision en phase avec ses objectifs strat\u00e9giques. Le fait de travailler dans le bon environnement, avec les bons processus, peut avoir sur les comp\u00e9tences d\u2019un individu un effet d\u2019amplification aussi indispensable \u00e0 la r\u00e9ussite qu\u2019une strat\u00e9gie boursi\u00e8re.<\/p>\n

Ce n\u2019est pas parce qu\u2019une \u00e9quipe d\u2019investissement est grande qu\u2019elle est meilleure. Ni, d\u2019ailleurs, qu\u2019elle prend de meilleures d\u00e9cisions ou qu\u2019elle exerce un meilleur jugement. En r\u00e9alit\u00e9, cela peut rendre le processus d\u2019investissement inutilement plus complexe et moins efficace. Des organisations moins hi\u00e9rarchiques tendent \u00e0 faire mieux. C\u2019est peut-\u00eatre d\u00fb \u00e0 leur structure plus simple.<\/p>\n

Exploiter au mieux l\u2019expertise des analystes de concert avec celle des gestionnaires de portefeuille est la caract\u00e9ristique de dirigeants comp\u00e9tents et d\u2019un climat de travail \u00e9panouissant. Des \u00e9quipes d\u2019horizons divers sur le plan de l\u2019\u00e9ducation, de l\u2019exp\u00e9rience, des comp\u00e9tences et de l\u2019information peuvent faire des merveilles quand elles poursuivent les m\u00eames objectifs et communiquent ouvertement. Les \u00e9tudes montrent par ailleurs que des \u00e9quipes d\u2019investissement comportant autant de femmes que d\u2019hommes pourraient obtenir de meilleurs r\u00e9sultats quant aux rendements ajust\u00e9s au risque.<\/p>\n

Avoir confiance en soi est un facteur n\u00e9cessaire, mais insuffisant pour r\u00e9ussir dans le domaine de l\u2019investissement. Une \u00e9quipe qui \u00e9l\u00e8ve son degr\u00e9 de m\u00e9taconnaissance est une assurance contre les mauvaises surprises qui se cachent dans l\u2019inconnu \u2014 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce qu\u2019elles se fassent conna\u00eetre!<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00c0 quel point \u00eates-vous certain de vos connaissances? En 2002, Donald Rumsfeld, alors secr\u00e9taire \u00e0 la d\u00e9fense des \u00c9tats-Unis, a lanc\u00e9 ces mots d\u00e9sormais c\u00e9l\u00e8bres lors d\u2019un breffage du Pentagone : \u00ab\u2009Comme chacun sait, il y a le connu connu, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les choses que nous savons que nous savons; il y a [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":59233,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[117],"fund-type":[36],"class_list":["post-59230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-cfa-institute-enterprising-investor","fund-type-equity-funds"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat do experts really know? 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