{"id":61359,"date":"2024-11-22T09:11:18","date_gmt":"2024-11-22T17:11:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.penderfund.com\/?p=61359"},"modified":"2025-09-18T14:53:25","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T21:53:25","slug":"the-price-of-public-credit-can-rise-and-fall-dramatically-thats-a-good-thing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/fr\/articles\/the-price-of-public-credit-can-rise-and-fall-dramatically-thats-a-good-thing\/","title":{"rendered":"Strat\u00e9gies en mati\u00e8re de cr\u00e9dit public : vive la volatilit\u00e9!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Comme on le voit sur The Institutional Investor (en anglais) le 22 novembre 2024<\/a><\/p>\n

Warren Buffett<\/span><\/a> a d\u00e9j\u00e0 dit que lui et feu Charlie Munger \u00ab\u2009pr\u00e9f\u00e9raient obtenir 15 % dans la turbulence que 12 % en toute s\u00e9r\u00e9nit\u00e9.\u2009\u00bb<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Mais quel investisseur peut se comparer \u00e0 Buffett? En fait, la plupart des investisseurs au d\u00e9tail sont tr\u00e8s sensibles \u00e0 la volatilit\u00e9 lorsqu\u2019elle est sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la moyenne; ils cherchent \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9viter en investissant dans des fonds qui visent \u00e0 att\u00e9nuer les fluctuations \u00e0 court terme. Au lieu de consid\u00e9rer la volatilit\u00e9 comme une occasion de produire de l\u2019alpha, l\u2019industrie de l\u2019investissement traditionnel qualifie la volatilit\u00e9, ou l\u2019\u00e9cart-type, de \u00ab\u2009risque\u2009\u00bb. Permettez-moi, \u00e0 cet \u00e9gard, de voir les choses autrement. J\u2019avancerais que le dynamisme inh\u00e9rent (un euph\u00e9misme \u00e9l\u00e9gant pour volatilit\u00e9) aux titres de cr\u00e9ance publics \u00e9valu\u00e9s \u00e0 la valeur de march\u00e9 comporte des avantages par rapport \u00e0 ceux du march\u00e9 priv\u00e9 tout en ayant le potentiel de faire meilleure figure.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Non seulement les investisseurs institutionnels ou tr\u00e8s fortun\u00e9s tol\u00e8rent les rendements \u00ab\u2009volatils\u2009\u00bb, mais ils les acceptent et les consid\u00e8rent comme une caract\u00e9ristique normale (et non comme un bogue). Les deux strat\u00e9gies \u2014 l\u2019\u00e9valuation d\u2019une position aux prix du mod\u00e8le (titres de cr\u00e9ance priv\u00e9s) et l\u2019\u00e9valuation \u00e0 la valeur du march\u00e9 (titres de cr\u00e9ance publics) \u2014 jouent un r\u00f4le de diversification essentiel sur les march\u00e9s alternatifs du cr\u00e9dit.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Toutefois, \u00e0 la diff\u00e9rence des cr\u00e9ances priv\u00e9es, investir dans la dette d\u2019une entreprise cot\u00e9e en bourse offre plusieurs avantages, surtout de nos jours, alors que les \u00e9v\u00e9nements \u00e9conomiques, politiques, g\u00e9opolitiques et l\u00e9gislatifs cr\u00e9ent de l\u2019incertitude et font grimper la volatilit\u00e9 sur le march\u00e9. Par exemple, les risques g\u00e9opolitiques, autrefois confin\u00e9s dans des r\u00e9gions pr\u00e9cises, touchent de nos jours simultan\u00e9ment une multitude de pays. Le m\u00e9contentement politique monte tant dans les pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s qu\u2019en voie de d\u00e9veloppement. Choisissez votre souci : l\u2019endettement \u00e9tatique exponentiel; les innovations technologiques telles que l\u2019intelligence artificielle et les opinions contradictoires quant \u00e0 ses b\u00e9n\u00e9fices ou ses dangers; ou encore le changement rapide des conditions climatiques. Ces glissements presque tectoniques, qui arrivent apparemment tous ensemble, doivent plus que jamais \u00eatre pris en compte dans toute strat\u00e9gie d\u2019investissement.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Quand le march\u00e9 bouge, il bouge souvent \u00e0 une telle rapidit\u00e9 et avec une telle amplitude que les investisseurs doivent r\u00e9organiser tr\u00e8s vite leurs positions.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

En mati\u00e8re de cr\u00e9dit, les \u00e9carts font office de prime offerte aux investisseurs pour pallier les risques associ\u00e9s \u00e0 la faillite. Des \u00e9carts \u00e9troits traduisent l\u2019aveuglement volontaire des investisseurs quant \u00e0 la sant\u00e9 du bilan de l\u2019entreprise, au r\u00e9tr\u00e9cissement des marges ou \u00e0 la possibilit\u00e9 que le financement co\u00fbte plus cher. Actuellement, les \u00e9carts sur cr\u00e9dit sont minces et se trouvent dans le quartile sup\u00e9rieur des moyennes historiques. Les entreprises qui ont mis\u00e9 sur la faiblesse des co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt t \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9poque o\u00f9 les banques centrales pratiquaient l\u2019assouplissement quantitatif pourraient, pour plusieurs d\u2019entre elles, devoir refinancer leur dette \u00e0 un taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 au cours des trois \u00e0 cinq ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir. Dans cette situation, qui tient quelque peu de la th\u00e9orie du cygne noir, plusieurs tendances d\u2019ores et d\u00e9j\u00e0 manifestes pourraient d\u00e9clencher l\u2019\u00e9largissement des \u00e9carts : du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de l\u2019immobilier commercial am\u00e9ricain, les saisies augmentent de m\u00eame que les taux de d\u00e9linquance sur les cartes de cr\u00e9dit des consommateurs. De plus, les \u00e9pargnes personnelles, qui s\u2019\u00e9taient renflou\u00e9es pendant la COVID, ne cessent de s\u2019\u00e9tioler depuis 2021.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 mon avis, la volatilit\u00e9 offre une belle occasion d\u2019investir et de faire profiter son capital dans un horizon temporel ad\u00e9quat pour, potentiellement, en obtenir un rendement sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 celui du cr\u00e9dit priv\u00e9. L\u2019\u00e9valuation \u00e0 la valeur du march\u00e9 est particuli\u00e8rement bien faite pour exploiter les conditions dynamiques. En effet, elle permet de r\u00e9agir plus rapidement aux fluctuations du march\u00e9 que les strat\u00e9gies priv\u00e9es, o\u00f9 la vitesse de r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 de tels changements est souvent lente. Moyennant des valeurs potentiellement sup\u00e9rieures dues \u00e0 la volatilit\u00e9, les march\u00e9s secondaires du cr\u00e9dit public proposent aux investisseurs certains avantages : 1) transparence sur le plan du prix; 2) liquidit\u00e9s; 3) visibilit\u00e9 en mati\u00e8re de gouvernance et de performance; 4) potentiel de rendements int\u00e9ressants par rapport aux actions, assortis de rendement \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9ch\u00e9ance favorable et de marges de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 robustes.<\/p>\n

Tout cycle du march\u00e9 propose des occasions attrayantes si on sait o\u00f9 regarder. Pourquoi devrait-on s\u2019int\u00e9resser \u00e0 la dette des petites et moyennes entreprises cot\u00e9es en bourse? Je crois qu\u2019on trouve dans cette ar\u00e8ne un lot d\u2019occasions all\u00e9chantes \u2014 en presque toutes saisons \u2014 pour nombre de raisons. La premi\u00e8re \u00e9tant la raret\u00e9 du capital. Lorsqu\u2019on \u00e9vite les grosses pointures, on peut d\u00e9ployer les fonds d\u2019investissement l\u00e0 o\u00f9 le capital est plus rare, parmi ces petites ou moyennes entreprises en situation de stress ou de d\u00e9tresse. Pour un investisseur, c\u2019est un excellent point de d\u00e9part. Le fait d\u2019acheter ces titres \u00e0 une fraction de leur valeur nominale apporte une marge de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 non n\u00e9gligeable et la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019obtenir un rendement substantiel quand les obligations se redressent. Les \u00e9carts touchant aux titres en situation de stress peuvent exc\u00e9der 600 points de base et ceux des titres en situation de d\u00e9tresse surpasser 1\u2009000 points de base.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Les grands requins du cr\u00e9dit ne peuvent pas nager avec le menu fretin, car ils ne peuvent pas prendre des positions imposantes sans d\u00e9former le march\u00e9. Par cons\u00e9quent, investir dans des entreprises plus modestes attire moins la concurrence des autres bailleurs de fonds et assure la possibilit\u00e9 de s\u2019engager dans une gestion de cr\u00e9dit proactive avec les entreprises potentielles. De telles occasions viennent normalement d\u2019entreprises plus petites, dont la structure de capital est simple et qui ont un bon potentiel de rendement et de croissance. Par ailleurs, contrairement aux investisseurs en actions qui se trouvent \u00e0 la toute fin de la cha\u00eene alimentaire, les d\u00e9tenteurs de titres de cr\u00e9ance ont des droits l\u00e9gaux sur les actifs et les liquidit\u00e9s de l\u2019\u00e9metteur. Cela leur procure un avantage en cas de n\u00e9gociation : ils peuvent demander des conditions de restructuration plus avantageuses et, de ce fait, faire pencher la balance en faveur d\u2019une issue favorable.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Qui plus est, parce que dans le secteur des petites et moyennes entreprises les \u00e9carts en mati\u00e8re de cr\u00e9dit ob\u00e9issent davantage aux caract\u00e9ristiques idiosyncrasiques des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s elles-m\u00eames qu\u2019\u00e0 celles du march\u00e9 plus large, cette strat\u00e9gie est b\u00e9n\u00e9fique pour qui veut diversifier et g\u00e9rer le risque. Elle peut g\u00e9n\u00e9rer des rendements b\u00eata hors march\u00e9 comparables \u00e0 ceux des actions. Je crois qu\u2019il y aura toujours, au cas par cas, des occasions int\u00e9ressantes d\u2019investir dans tout march\u00e9 et dans tout cycle \u00e9conomique. Quand un secteur n\u2019a plus la cote \u2014 actuellement, les soins de sant\u00e9, les biotechnologies, les v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques et le cannabis \u2014 ou qu\u2019une entreprise a du mal \u00e0 trouver du refinancement, cela cr\u00e9e des occasions qui ne correspondent pas parfaitement au consensus d\u2019un cycle du march\u00e9 particulier. Toutefois, acheter de bonnes entreprises au bilan d\u00e9plorable exige des recherches fondamentales approfondies. Quand on a une compr\u00e9hension rigoureuse d\u2019une entreprise ou d\u2019un secteur, il est possible d\u2019utiliser la volatilit\u00e9 \u00e0 son avantage et de tirer profit des occasions bien avant tout le monde.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Il ne s\u2019agit pas d\u2019une strat\u00e9gie o\u00f9 on peut faire un investissement et ne plus y penser. C\u2019est une approche tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9renci\u00e9e, o\u00f9 il faut mettre la main \u00e0 la p\u00e2te, suivre et analyser chaque titre de cr\u00e9dit r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement. En d\u2019autres mots, chaque actif doit \u00ab\u2009se battre\u2009\u00bb pour obtenir une place dans le portefeuille, lequel fait l\u2019objet d\u2019un suivi r\u00e9gulier.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Les gestionnaires de portefeuille qui se sp\u00e9cialisent dans les entreprises en situation de stress ou de d\u00e9tresse devront n\u00e9cessairement faire affaire avec une diversit\u00e9 de parties prenantes, telles que des avocats, des comptables, des agences de cr\u00e9dit, des gestionnaires d\u2019entreprise, et j\u2019en passe. \u00catre agiles et capables de s\u2019adapter parfois rapidement aux conditions changeantes du march\u00e9 et aux multiples intervenants est une qualit\u00e9 primordiale pour nous.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pour paraphraser Howard Marks<\/a>, co-fondateur et vice-pr\u00e9sident d\u2019Oaktree Capital Management, chef de file international en investissements alternatifs : \u00ab\u2009Si vous voulez obtenir un r\u00e9sultat sup\u00e9rieur, vous devez investir l\u00e0 o\u00f9 les autres ne se sont pas ru\u00e9s et l\u00e0 o\u00f9 la pleine valeur n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 atteinte. Autrement dit, vous devez agir diff\u00e9remment.\u2009\u00bb.<\/span>.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Comme le monde, et les march\u00e9s des capitaux dans son sillage, devient de plus en plus volatil et impr\u00e9visible, il faut n\u00e9cessairement investir davantage dans des actifs alternatifs afin d\u2019\u00eatre financi\u00e8rement r\u00e9silients. Parmi ces actifs, les titres de cr\u00e9ance publics sont en mesure de livrer des rendements comp\u00e9titifs par rapport aux cr\u00e9ances priv\u00e9es, mais tout en offrant beaucoup plus de liquidit\u00e9, de transparence (sur le plan des prix, de la performance et de la gouvernance) et aussi, certes, de volatilit\u00e9. L\u2019horizon temporel est aussi important, car la volatilit\u00e9 n\u2019est avantageuse qu\u2019\u00e0 ceux qui sont pr\u00eats \u00e0 vivre \u00e0 fond l\u2019exp\u00e9rience d\u2019investisseur. Pour ces investisseurs capables de supporter quelques soubresauts, l\u2019avenir s\u2019annonce prometteur pour les strat\u00e9gies d\u2019\u00e9valuation \u00e0 la valeur du march\u00e9 qui pourraient produire des rendements in\u00e9dits dans les prochaines ann\u00e9es.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Image :<\/strong> Freepik<\/em><\/h5>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Warren Buffett a d\u00e9j\u00e0 dit que lui et feu Charlie Munger \u00ab\u2009pr\u00e9f\u00e9raient obtenir 15 % dans la turbulence que 12 % en toute s\u00e9r\u00e9nit\u00e9.\u2009\u00bb \nMais quel investisseur peut se comparer \u00e0 Buffett? En fait, la plupart des investisseurs au d\u00e9tail sont tr\u00e8s sensibles \u00e0 la volatilit\u00e9 lorsqu\u2019elle est sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la moyenne; ils cherchent \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9viter en investissant dans des [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":61360,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[121],"fund-type":[41],"class_list":["post-61359","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-institutional-investor","fund-type-fixed-income-funds"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Price of Public Credit Can Rise and Fall Dramatically. 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That\u2019s a Good Thing. - PenderFund Capital Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As published in the Institutional Investor on November 22, 2024 Warren Buffett said that he and the late Charlie Munger, \u201cprefer a lumpy 15 percent to a smooth 12 percent return.\u201d But not every investor is, or can be, a Buffett.\u00a0 On the contrary, many retail \u2014 and many institutional \u2014 investors are highly sensitive […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/fr\/articles\/the-price-of-public-credit-can-rise-and-fall-dramatically-thats-a-good-thing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"PenderFund Capital Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/penderfund\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-11-22T17:11:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-18T21:53:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/flat-statistics-presentation-with-arrows-scaled-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1707\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Evan Warburton\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@penderfund\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@penderfund\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Evan Warburton\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimation du temps de lecture\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/articles\/the-price-of-public-credit-can-rise-and-fall-dramatically-thats-a-good-thing\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/articles\/the-price-of-public-credit-can-rise-and-fall-dramatically-thats-a-good-thing\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Evan Warburton\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/#\/schema\/person\/17c0d780f89503e6aaeb9ed8c523a712\"},\"headline\":\"The Price of Public Credit Can Rise and Fall Dramatically. 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