{"id":69700,"date":"2022-12-22T11:56:07","date_gmt":"2022-12-22T19:56:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/?p=69700"},"modified":"2025-09-22T08:22:33","modified_gmt":"2025-09-22T15:22:33","slug":"69700","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/fr\/education\/69700\/","title":{"rendered":"Time in market vs. timing the market"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"uk-panel uk-margin\">\n<h2>Une approche \u00e0 long terme peut contribuer \u00e0 prot\u00e9ger le capital et \u00e0 faire cro\u00eetre le p\u00e9cule.<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"uk-panel uk-margin\">\n<p>La recherche du moment opportun, un concept en vertu duquel les d\u00e9cisions de placement sont prises en fonction des mouvements boursiers anticip\u00e9s, est une strat\u00e9gie tr\u00e8s s\u00e9duisante \u2013 un peu \u00e0 l\u2019image des sir\u00e8nes de la mythologie grecque qui se servaient de la beaut\u00e9 de leurs chants pour attirer et prendre aux pi\u00e8ges les matelots. Or, ceux et celles qui ont \u00e9tudi\u00e9 la mythologie grecque vous diront que ces pauvres matelots n\u2019ont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement pas connu une issue heureuse. Les investisseurs, \u00e0 l\u2019instar de ces marins, seraient bien avertis de r\u00e9sister \u00e0 la tentation de juger du moment opportun pour vendre ou acheter sur le march\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/staging.penderfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/2023_PenderFund_Investor-EducationTemplate_Time-in-Market_FR_FA.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">T\u00e9l\u00e9charger le pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>L\u2019expression \u00ab c\u2019est la dur\u00e9e d\u2019investissement, et non la recherche du moment opportun, qui m\u00e8ne \u00e0 de bons rendements \u00bb m\u00e9rite d\u2019\u00eatre r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9e, particuli\u00e8rement pour ces investisseurs piqu\u00e9s par la mouche de l\u2019hyperactivit\u00e9. Les march\u00e9s, tout comme le monde dans son ensemble, sont compliqu\u00e9s. Il va sans dire que le placement serait plus ais\u00e9 si tout un chacun \u00e9tait en mesure de pr\u00e9voir les p\u00e9riodes de volatilit\u00e9 accrue et de prendre position en cons\u00e9quence. Malheureusement, il s\u2019agit rarement d\u2019une strat\u00e9gie gagnante pour prot\u00e9ger et faire cro\u00eetre son capital \u00e0 long terme.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>\u00ab La recherche du moment opportun est une fa\u00e7on peu fiable d\u2019amasser un p\u00e9cule. \u00bb<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>La recherche du moment opportun est une fa\u00e7on peu fiable d\u2019amasser un p\u00e9cule. Cette strat\u00e9gie se pr\u00eate trop ais\u00e9ment \u00e0 toute une panoplie de b\u00e9vues cognitives et comportementales. En effet, ses adeptes doivent \u00eatre en mesure de choisir la bonne cat\u00e9gorie d\u2019actif, au bon moment et au bon prix; une conjoncture o\u00f9 toutes sortes d\u2019erreurs risquent de se produire. Tenter de d\u00e9terminer les creux et les sommets boursiers s\u2019av\u00e8re incroyablement ardu; les contours de ceux-ci ne deviennent \u00e9vidents que dans le r\u00e9troviseur. C\u2019est d\u2019ailleurs une des raisons pour lesquelles de nombreux investisseurs ont tant de difficult\u00e9s \u00e0 revenir sur la place boursi\u00e8re apr\u00e8s un march\u00e9 baissier, et aussi la raison pour laquelle ils ont tendance \u00e0 cons\u00e9quemment manquer le bateau des fortes remont\u00e9es.<\/p>\n<p>Selon une \u00e9tude r\u00e9alis\u00e9e par MerrillEdge, si une personne avait conserv\u00e9 un placement de 1\u2009000 $ dans un fonds indiciel S&amp;P 500 \u00e0 partir de 2009, ce montant initial aurait eu en 2018 une valeur de 3\u2009530 $. Toutefois, si on retire de cette composition les 20 mois les plus performants au cours de cette p\u00e9riode, la valeur en fin de compte s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8ve \u00e0 peine \u00e0 958 $.<\/p>\n<p>Une \u00e9tude plus r\u00e9cente men\u00e9e par\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.morningstar.com\/articles\/972119\/3-charts-that-show-why-investors-should-stay-the-course-throughout-market-turmoil\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Morningstar<\/a>\u00a0en venait \u00e0 la m\u00eame conclusion. Les investisseurs qui ont gard\u00e9 le cap pendant le krach technologique de 2000-2002, puis durant la r\u00e9cession de 2007-2009 (p\u00e9riodes pendant lesquelles les march\u00e9s am\u00e9ricains ont, \u00e0 leur creux le plus prononc\u00e9, d\u00e9gag\u00e9 un rendement\u00a0<em>n\u00e9gatif<\/em>\u00a0de 50,9 %), et bien ces investisseurs ont par la suite profit\u00e9 d\u2019une expansion sur 98 mois jusqu\u2019en 2018. Les march\u00e9s ont \u00e9galement mont\u00e9 en fl\u00e8che apr\u00e8s le choc initial de la pand\u00e9mie mondiale de 2020.<\/p>\n<h2>Moment opportun et partialit\u00e9 des investisseurs<\/h2>\n<p>Dans leur qu\u00eate du moment opportun, les investisseurs tendent \u00e9galement \u00e0 commettre des erreurs d\u2019ordre \u00e9motionnel. Ils sont plus optimistes et pr\u00eats \u00e0 courir des risques lorsque les march\u00e9s sont au beau fixe, car ils craignent de rater une occasion. En revanche, pris de peur et de panique, ils risquent davantage de vendre leurs titres lors de p\u00e9riodes n\u00e9gatives. Tout ceci est bien compr\u00e9hensible puisqu\u2019on sait bien que \u00ab les march\u00e9s prennent les escaliers pour monter et l\u2019ascenseur pour descendre \u00bb. Les replis boursiers peuvent se produire \u00e0 la vitesse de l\u2019\u00e9clair, tous azimuts, comme ce fut le cas lors de la r\u00e9cession mondiale ou aux premiers jours de la pand\u00e9mie mondiale de 2020.<\/p>\n<p>Toutefois, les remont\u00e9es peuvent aussi arriver rapidement et \u00e0 l\u2019improviste, et le fait de rater ces p\u00e9riodes cl\u00e9s peut franchement nuire \u00e0 votre sant\u00e9 financi\u00e8re. En outre, effectuer des transactions fr\u00e9quentes entra\u00eene des co\u00fbts suppl\u00e9mentaires sous forme de commissions, taxes et imp\u00f4ts. Pour ceux qui re\u00e7oivent des prestations gouvernementales en fonction du revenu individuel, comme la S\u00e9curit\u00e9 de la vieillesse, des op\u00e9rations de recouvrement fiscal peuvent \u00eatre d\u00e9clench\u00e9es.<\/p>\n<p>Comme l\u2019illustre le graphique ci-dessous, poss\u00e9der des actions peut se r\u00e9v\u00e9ler moins risqu\u00e9 \u00e0 long terme. De plus, les gains en bout de route sont appel\u00e9s \u00e0 avantageusement contrebalancer les pertes subies \u00e0 court terme. Depuis 1926, au cours de 80 p\u00e9riodes de 15 ans (chevauch\u00e9es), aucune n\u2019a d\u00e9gag\u00e9 un rendement n\u00e9gatif \u2013 rappelons-nous cependant que \u00ab les rendements pass\u00e9s ne sont pas indicatifs des rendements futurs \u00bb (Morningstar).<\/p>\n<h2><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-43716 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/media.penderfund.com\/media\/2022\/12\/Picture1-827x950.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.penderfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Picture1-827x950.png 827w, https:\/\/www.penderfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Picture1-768x882.png 768w, https:\/\/www.penderfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Picture1.png 1321w\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"574\" \/><\/h2>\n<h2>Pourrez-vous entendre le signal malgr\u00e9 tout le bruit environnant?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"translation-block\">Pendant les baisses boursi\u00e8res, les m\u00e9dias financiers exacerbent souvent le probl\u00e8me en jetant de l\u2019huile sur le feu et en amplifiant le sentiment de peur et de panique. Sachant que la volatilit\u00e9 op\u00e8re vraiment en ma\u00eetresse au sein de tous les march\u00e9s, il convient d\u2019avoir recours \u00e0 une strat\u00e9gie de placement fond\u00e9e sur des outils et des temp\u00e9raments qui contribuent \u00e0 prot\u00e9ger et \u00e0 faire cro\u00eetre le capital au gr\u00e9 des conditions \u00e9conomiques. Ainsi, on dira qu\u2019il est bon de porter son regard sur les \u00e9v\u00e9nements quotidiens, mais dommageable d\u2019y porter trop attention. Il s\u2019agit l\u00e0 d\u2019un petit conseil pour les personnes qui s\u2019inqui\u00e8tent outre mesure des p\u00e9rip\u00e9ties boursi\u00e8res quotidiennes, voire mensuelles, et qui risquent ainsi de r\u00e9aliser des pertes. Les investisseurs astucieux, quant \u00e0 eux, auront plus tendance \u00e0 profiter des cours affaiblis pour acheter les actions d\u2019entreprises de qualit\u00e9 \u00e0 escompte relatif. Dans son fameux article paru dans <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2008\/10\/17\/opinion\/17buffett.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The New York Times<\/a> de 2008, soit la p\u00e9riode la plus noire de la grande r\u00e9cession, Warren Buffet \u00e9crit ceci : \u00ab Les craintes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de la prosp\u00e9rit\u00e9 \u00e0 long terme de nombreuses entreprises bien \u00e9tablies n\u2019ont aucun sens. Ces entreprises encaisseront quelques mauvais coups, comme elles l\u2019ont fait par le pass\u00e9. Mais la majorit\u00e9 de ces grandes soci\u00e9t\u00e9s toucheront des profits records dans 5, 10 et 20 ans. \u00bb<\/p>\n<p>Pour les investisseurs disposant d\u2019un horizon \u00e0 long terme, les tournoiements du march\u00e9 sont une caract\u00e9ristique de celui-ci et non une tare. L\u2019objectif consiste \u00e0 demeurer humble et \u00e0 s\u2019impr\u00e9gner d\u2019une bonne dose de sto\u00efcisme. M\u00eame si personne ne conna\u00eet les ingr\u00e9dients de la sauce secr\u00e8te, une \u00e9nigme a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9solue : c\u2019est la dur\u00e9e d\u2019investissement et non la recherche du moment opportun qui vous mettra sur la voie du succ\u00e8s.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La recherche du moment opportun, un concept en vertu duquel les d\u00e9cisions de placement sont prises en fonction des mouvements boursiers anticip\u00e9s, est une strat\u00e9gie tr\u00e8s s\u00e9duisante \u2013 un peu \u00e0 l\u2019image des sir\u00e8nes de la mythologie grecque qui se servaient de la beaut\u00e9 de leurs chants pour attirer et prendre aux [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":69706,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[124],"tags":[],"fund-type":[],"class_list":["post-69700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-education"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Time in market vs. timing the market - PenderFund Capital Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Time in market vs. timing the market - PenderFund Capital Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Protecting capital and growing wealth can benefit from long-term thinking The concept of market timing\u2014the idea that successful investing decisions can be based on predicting future market movements\u2014is as seductive as the Sirens of Greek mythology who ensnared sailors with the sweetness of their songs. 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